UK Diplomats Advised Regarding Armed Intervention to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Recently released documents show that the Foreign Office advised against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Isolation Strategy Considered Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we judge that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."

The paper continues: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.