Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
