Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process
Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
