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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.