🔗 Share this article

Amid the widespread uncertainty regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another state and seize its president – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He believes that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden additional military gambits.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.