From Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly power-based world order – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”