A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
